A 100M DOGE whale transfer generates curiosity, but potential buyers remain cautious.

Dogecoin Whale Transfer Sparks Curiosity, But Market Sentiment Remains Cautious

Dogecoin [DOGE] recently experienced a 100M DOGE whale transfer, igniting market interest. However, the discrepancy between Dogecoin’s market capitalization and realized cap sheds light on the current market sentiment.

Dogecoin Whale Accumulation and Market Sentiment

Two key whale cohorts have shown signs of accumulation, while other groups hesitate to buy. Dogecoin’s trading volume dropped by 33.5% in the past 24 hours, possibly due to the weekend effect, which often slows trading. During this period, DOGE’s price fell by 3%, coinciding with Bitcoin’s rejection at the $97.9K level.

Despite the price dip, whales added a 100 million DOGE transfer, worth $17.5 million, to their holdings, fueling speculation about a potential rally. This aligns with increased Dogecoin exchange outflows, which suggest large withdrawals from exchanges. However, other metrics have failed to show strong bullish signals, signaling caution.

Market Capitalization Discrepancy Raises Concerns

From April 6th, Dogecoin’s market capitalization grew from $21 billion to $26.4 billion, while the realized cap slightly shrank from $21.5 billion to $21.3 billion. This gap indicates that speculative activity may have driven some of Dogecoin’s recent gains rather than organic growth.

The realized cap reflects the value of all coins in circulation based on the last price they were moved at on-chain. This shrinking realized cap suggests that recent buyers are taking profits, while long-term holders (LTHs) remain inactive. If LTHs were selling, we would likely see a more significant decline in the realized cap.

Dogecoin Whale and Holder Activity Patterns

Whale activity shows mixed signals. On April 8th, wallets holding between 100-1 million DOGE increased their selling, and these wallets have not accumulated since. Meanwhile, holders of 10 million-100 million DOGE have steadily distributed their holdings over the past month. On the other hand, 1 million-10 million DOGE holders and 100 million-1 billion DOGE holders exhibited buying interest after April 8th.

Declining Active Addresses and Market Sentiment

Daily Active Addresses have plummeted, now at just 3.4% of their November peak. This drop emphasizes the subdued market sentiment, suggesting that Dogecoin may not be ready for a major long-term rally unless there is a significant increase in activity and buying pressure.