Are Bitcoin short-term holders facing mounting stress, with the toughest times still ahead?

Bitcoin’s short-term holders—those who have held the asset for less than 155 days—are indeed facing significant pressure as of April 7, 2025. Recent market dynamics suggest a challenging period for these investors, but whether the “worst is yet to come” depends on several unfolding factors.

The current landscape shows Bitcoin trading around $69,000-$85,000, down from its all-time high of $109,000 in January 2025. This decline has put many short-term holders “underwater,” meaning their purchase prices exceed the current market value. On-chain data indicates that these holders are selling at a loss, a trend often associated with capitulation during volatile or bearish phases. For instance, the Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH-SOPR), which measures profitability of coins sold by this group, has dipped below 1.0—hovering around 0.97-0.98 in recent weeks—signaling widespread realized losses. Historically, such levels have coincided with panic selling, as seen in the August 2024 crash and the March 2025 dip to $77,000.

This selling pressure is compounded by a slowdown in accumulation among short-term holders, with some analyses suggesting a decline in demand and confidence in Bitcoin’s near-term prospects. The lack of institutional buying, evidenced by net outflows from Bitcoin ETFs (e.g., $920 million in mid-March and $85-87 million from funds like FBTC and ARKB in early April), has left the market without a strong counterbalance to absorb this sell-off. Meanwhile, macroeconomic uncertainties—such as tariff concerns, inflation fears, and a potential hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve—continue to weigh on risk assets like Bitcoin, potentially exacerbating the strain on short-term holders.

However, there are signs that the worst may not be imminent. Long-term holders (those holding for over 155 days) are showing resilience, with their supply increasing by over 250,000 BTC since February 2025. This accumulation suggests a transfer of wealth to more convicted investors, which could stabilize prices if the trend persists. Historically, when short-term holder selling pressure eases and their losses diminish (as seen with a 90% drop in realized losses by late March), it has often marked the bottom of a correction, paving the way for recovery. Additionally, optimistic forecasts from figures like Michael Saylor, who predicts a “supply shock” post-halving, and Marshall Beard and Tom Lee, who see Bitcoin hitting $150,000 by year-end, point to potential bullish catalysts.

The critical question is whether deeper-pocketed investors—long-term holders or institutions—step in to absorb the current sell-off. If Bitcoin holds key support levels like $81,000 (or even $76,000 on a weekly close), it could signal resilience and avert a steeper decline. Conversely, a break below $76,000-$70,000, where some analysts see a possible floor, might intensify panic and push losses higher for short-term holders. The interplay of on-chain metrics, market sentiment, and external economic triggers will determine the outcome.

In short, short-term holders are under strain, and the market is at a pivotal moment. The worst could still materialize if selling accelerates and support fails, but historical patterns and emerging long-term holder strength suggest a bottom may be near—though not guaranteed. Keep an eye on institutional flows and macroeconomic developments; they’ll likely dictate what’s next.