Bitcoin dominance hits 64% for the first time in 4 years — Is a 2021-style altcoin season on the horizon?

Altcoins Eye Breakout as Bitcoin Dominance Altcoin Season Trends Reemerge

Bitcoin dominance altcoin season signals are flashing again, as BTC.D climbs past 64% for the first time since 2021. This milestone suggests a potential shift in market dynamics, where capital may rotate into altcoins — echoing patterns seen in previous crypto cycles.

Source – Tradingview (BTC.D)

Bitcoin Dominance Surges Past 64% — Is a Market Rotation Incoming?

Bitcoin dominance recently breached a critical level, now sitting at its highest point in over four years. Historically, these levels of BTC.D have preceded notable altcoin rallies. However, momentum indicators are hinting at a slowdown.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for BTC.D has surged past 80, entering overbought territory — a common signal of exhaustion that could prompt a short-term pullback and open the door for altcoins to regain strength.

Echoes of 2021: Altcoin Patterns Suggest a Familiar Setup

During the 2021 cycle, a similar rise in Bitcoin dominance marked the beginning of a powerful altcoin rally. Back then, the Altcoin Market Index bottomed below 10 before exploding above 75 by early 2022.

Today, we see a comparable setup. The Altcoin Index has rebounded from 13 to 20, while leading altcoins like Solana (SOL) posted double-digit weekly gains — with SOL alone jumping over 11%.

At the same time, the total crypto market cap (excluding Bitcoin) increased by $42 billion in a single week — signaling renewed investor interest in altcoins and alternative digital assets.

BTC.D Trends Point to Caution Despite Familiar Signals

April’s market action closely mimicked the historical playbook: BTC.D hit resistance, Bitcoin corrected by 3.65%, and yet altcoin buyers hesitated. Despite a short-lived drop in dominance, BTC.D bounced back above 64%, reinforcing Bitcoin’s firm grip on market leadership.

This cautious behavior suggests that a high BTC.D level may no longer guarantee a coming altseason, especially amid ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty and evolving investor sentiment.

Altcoin Season Outlook: Setup Is Strong, But Confirmation Is Key

While technical patterns and historical cycles support the idea of a potential Bitcoin dominance altcoin season, confirmation remains elusive. The current environment favors altcoins — especially if Bitcoin consolidates or retreats — but capital rotation has yet to fully accelerate.

Traders should stay alert for stronger signals, particularly in late Q3 or early Q4 of 2025, when broader participation could spark a full-scale altcoin breakout.