Even if the FOMC decision surprises, Bitcoin could still rally – Here’s what’s driving it

Bitcoin Outperforms Gold and Stocks Ahead of FOMC

Bitcoin (BTC) outperforms gold and stocks ahead of the Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting, signaling its growing appeal as a safe-haven asset. While traditional markets face uncertainty, Bitcoin has shown consistent strength, leading many to wonder if BTC is replacing gold as a preferred store of value.

Bitcoin Outperforms Gold as Traders Await FOMC Decision

Investor tension is rising ahead of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s policy announcement. Most analysts expect interest rates to remain unchanged. Still, many anticipate short-term Bitcoin price volatility in the next 48 hours.

Despite this, Bitcoin’s month-long strength continues to support the “up-only” mindset. While gold and equities remain flat, BTC’s gains are reinforcing growing market confidence.

Recession Risk Looms as Real Rates Exceed Neutral Level

Historical patterns suggest a potential downturn. Every time the real federal funds rate has climbed well above the natural rate, the U.S. economy has either slowed or entered a recession.

A chart from Jim Paulsen shows how current conditions echo past economic peaks. The real rate is now far above neutral, raising alarm bells.

Source : X

Donald Trump has called on the Fed to cut rates. However, with Q1 GDP shrinking and April job numbers still strong, officials are likely to hold steady on May 7. Meanwhile, proposed tariffs could add inflationary pressure, complicating policy decisions.

Bitcoin Replaces Gold for Some as Safe-Haven Demand Rises

In April, Bitcoin gained over 7%, outperforming gold (5%) and the S&P 500, which remained weak. This performance suggests a growing shift—some investors are now turning to BTC over traditional hedges like gold or defensive stocks.

Should the Fed cut rates later this year, BTC could benefit from rising liquidity and renewed risk appetite. This would strengthen its position as a digital store of value.

BTC Price Outlook: Consolidation or Continued Rally?

Bitcoin’s price has pulled back slightly but remains in a bullish technical setup. According to Michael Van De Poppe, BTC is “holding up nicely” and may be forming a local bottom.

Source : Tradingview

A key liquidity zone sits between $61.5K–$62.5K, acting as a likely re-entry point if prices dip. BTC’s recent consolidation is typical ahead of major Fed news. The broader uptrend remains intact, and optimism is growing around a potential easing cycle.

Final Thoughts: Bitcoin’s Strength Signals Macro Confidence

Whether or not the Fed changes course, Bitcoin outperforms gold and other traditional assets. This resilience reinforces its role as an emerging safe-haven asset.

If BTC holds support, bulls could regain control and target higher levels. With the macro landscape in flux, Bitcoin may be positioning itself for the next leg up.